Sabean-Magowan Chalk Talk

Tonight I and about 250 other Giants season ticket holders had the privilege of having a chat with Giants General Manager Brian Sabean and ownership rep Peter Magowan at the yard.

Better strap it on, boys, this post is a long one.

Omar Vizquel
The night started with the introduction of the new shortstop, one Omar Vizquel. He got a nice standing ovation and answered a few questions from the fans. He looked good, aside from the bald spot and questionable shoe selection.

He admitted that switching leagues could be a concern during the early part of the season, but was confident that he'd adjust. I think he'll do fine, much like Ray Durham has done in his switch from the AL. I doubt he'll be as troubled as Pierzynski.

Vizquel expressed enthusiasm for joining the Giants, in part because he thinks they are a playoff team, in part because his family is on the West Coast, and in part because he gets to hang out with veteran players. "I didn't want to be babysitting anymore," he said.

He also made a point I hadn't considered before about the Giants schedule. He said it might be tough to play so many day games after night games, something that I think I've heard Barry complain about before. The schedule came up later in the talk, and Sabean said the travel and home scheduling is a definite concern to players who consider coming to San Francisco. Magowan said that the fans like day games, primarily because the weather is much more pleasant then. On the other hand, most people can't make weekday afternoon games, so there has to be some night games. He thought the current mix will pretty much stick.

Sabean was obviously excited about having Vizquel's glove. He had me scratching my head a bit, though, when he was searching for a comparison. He said Giants fans haven't seen a glove like this at short for quite a while. "He'll probably remind you of a young Royce Clayton." I'd prefer not to be, thanks.

After having some time to digest the Vizquel deal, I'm more enthusiastic about it than I was initially. Vizquel alone is just part of the offseason strategy, and he's definitely a big upgrade at shortstop. He should be good for 2005, and I'll start worrying about the rest later.

Barry Bonds
A fan asked if the Giants felt that they owed it to Barry Bonds to make a push for the World Series. "We owe it to everyone in this room," Sabean said. "We know the window is closing. You can only ride the crest of a wave for so long."

Later in the talk, Magowan brought out the old chestnut about Barry walking no matter who is behind him, et cetera, making a most unfortunate citation of Jeff Kent and his MVP season. As if that proves it doesn't matter. Seems to me that the Giants made it to the World Series with Kent hitting behind Bonds.

But Sabean does seem to be determined to get another bat in there. "I don't want to get everyone's hopes up," Sabean said, "but we are definitely looking for an outfielder." His comments made it clear he was talking about someone like Ordonez, Drew, or Alou, rather than a player like Finley.

The talk later turned to money and the possibility of getting Barry to take deferred money to help the team now. Magowan said they'd considered some things, but for the most part it was a non-starter. "This (deferred money) is like heroin," Magowan said. " You can get addicted in a hurry." He pointed to the situation in Arizona as an example. Unfortunately, he kept spoiling his points by bringing up other, terrible examples. Like the Florida Marlins. He mentioned how the team was dismantled after the 1997 World Series title, but neglected to mention the team won the Series again six years later.   

Mistakes
Sabean was quite harsh in his self-assessment of the 2004 season. "I did everything I could to screw up the first part of the season," he said. "And the players spent the rest of the season digging out." He said he made two bad calls at the beginning of the season that handicapped the team. The first was counting on Robb Nen being healthy, which I think he meant that he should have had a realistic backup plan if Nen couldn't play. The second mistake was the misassessment of Joe Nathan's potential as a closer. I think we can all agree that these cost the Giants last season, but I have to give Sabean major props for coming out and saying "I screwed up."

Sabean also expressed regret for pushing Merkin Valdez to the bigs late in the season. "We were trying to catch lightning in a bottle," he said.

Prospects
Sabean said that Cain and Valdez aren't that far away from making the big club, but they probably won't be on the Opening Day roster. Aardsma needs more seasoning, and Sabean said that expecting him to come to the majors straight off the Rice campus was asking a lot of the kid.

As for the hitters, only Tony Torcato was mentioned, and that was because a relative of his got a hold of a microphone. Sabean said he's done a great job as a pinch hitter in the majors, but he's the victim of numbers on the Giants. If the pitching staff was strong enough to allow the Giants to carry 14 hitters, Torcato would have a better chance, but Sabean thought that the 12-13 split would continue. Plus Torcato is out of options, so he'll probably wind up on waivers this spring if he doesn't make the big club.

While we're talking about prospects, Sabean made  interesting points about developing young players. First, he said it's tough to win and develop at the same time. He also said he'd rather try to deal with a young pitcher than a young hitter because you can protect a pitcher. By that he means that you can dictate what situations a pitcher is put into much more easily than you can a hitter. He said that you've got to be very sure about a hitter's ability before you slot him in the lineup. He wants to let position players surprise him.

Pitching
The rotation right now is Schmidt, Tomko, Lowry, Williams, and Rueter. That's the order Sabean listed them in. Not much was mentioned about signing bullpen help, though he did say they are trying to cut a deal with Hermanson and if there's a chance to sign a good pitcher at a decent price, the Giants will take it. Somebody mentioned Troy Percival, but there didn't seem to be much enthusiasm in the room for that idea, either from the fans or the Giants brass (Larry Baer was hanging out offstage as well).

Hitting
The A.J. Pierzynski era appears to be over. Sabean expressed doubt that they'd be able to hammer out a deal with him, and he didn't even mention the possibility of offering him arbitration. Torrealba is considered a starting catcher, but the question he'll have to answer is if he can deliver at the plate. Sabean said he's great at handling the pitching staff, and did admit that the Giants have been spoiled lately with the production from behind the plate, mentioning Santiago and A. J.

Pedro Feliz was called the team's biggest dilemma. Sabean likes him, but finding him at-bats is still troublesome. It didn't seem like Alfonzo was going anywhere, as Sabean said having Cruz and Feliz "floating" on the bench was not a bad problem to have.

Manager
Magowan and Sabean could not lavish enough praise on Felipe Alou. Both thought he easily could have been manager of the year both years of his Giants tenure. Sabean praised his in-game intensity, comparing him to Billy Martin in that regard. One interesting thing Sabean mentioned was that he thought Alou did a great job with the players, that the Giants clubhouse avoids turmoil. I'd say that's true for the most part, as long as you leave A.J. out of the equation.

One fan looked to the future and asked if the Giants had considered bringing back Bob Brenly to manage, and that got a few boos out of the crowd, including me. (I do kind of like him as a TV analyst.)

Et Cetera
Fans asked if there would be a reduction or elimination of interleague games. Magowan said that currently there are too many interleague games on the schedule. He prefers 12 to the 18 now, but it's Bud Selig's call. And Bud has maps and charts to show how popular it is with the fans. Magowan said that's skewed by some marquee matchups, but there are some real bad games out there. A fan suggested at least cutting the matchups with the A's in half, which was met with much agreement.

What is Sabean's ideal Giants player? A well-rounded player. Good on defense. Not necessarily speedy, but able to help on the basepaths. Veteran experience.

That's about all I can remember or read from my notes.

Comments

[kintetsu]

Wow, Marty, thanks for such a great post. I feel like I was in the room. (Incidentally, how many people WERE in the room?)

A few questions/observations/opinions: What gave you the sense Sabean will go harder for Magglio or Alou than for Finley? Finley is still a Gold Glove center fielder, and presumably, the other teams interested in him are LA, AZ and SD. Wouldn't your net benefit be even greater if you can keep him away from NL West rivals?

Plus, does that mean a Grissom/Tucker platoon in center field? You could do worse. Mohr starts in left for Barry and can make occasional starts in right. I don't like any of those corner outfielders you mentioned playing RF at SBC Park, though.

Maybe they could find a match with the Braves and get Andruw Jones. There's a blue-chip CF for you. If Atlanta doesn't use him in a deal for Kevin Brown, maybe Scherholz spins him to the Giants. Trouble is, they need pitching. Who's expendable? Aardsma? Maybe they take Merkin/Manuel back as part of a package. Of course, if the Giants take Andruw's $12 million salary (each year through '06), they'd need to pare dollars elsewhere (aside from just non-tendering D.P. Pierzynski). Just thinking out loud...

That's a great point about the difference in controlling the environment for young pitchers as opposed to young hitters. Never thought of it in those terms. Makes perfect sense.

Sabean seems much more candid in that setting, expecially in his harsh self-assessments, than he is with reporters. Are the beat guys not asking the right questions, or does his demeanor change?

Did anyone ask if Cody Ransom was locked in a closet somewhere?

Did you get to ask any questions?

[Jake]

The fact that Sabean was able to own up to his blunders AND say it's likely they'll dump A.J.'s contract has done a lot to restore my faith in him. I'm actually feeling optomistic about 2005, though if we sign Jermaine Dye that feeling may fade..

[Marty]

My best guess at attendance is about 250 (like I say at the top). There were three sections: 10 rows of 15 seats in the middle (full) with 7 or 8 rows of about 10 on either side (full on one side, sparse on the other).

Free agent-wise, it's just a feeling on my part. He didn't mention any names, aside from ruling out Beltran. The way he was talking seemed to me to indicate someone who's a perceived threat at the plate. I like Finley, but he's not that kind of a presence. But it's just a feeling, and I could be completely wrong.

I think Sabean's demeanor changes when he's around the fans. He may get the same tough questions from both groups, but he probably knows the fans ask because they want the Giants to win, while the reporters might ask to get a story. Just different dynamics at play. Plus I doubt he gets much applause from reporters.

Cody Ransom was not mentioned.

I didn't get to ask any questions. My area was fairly devoid of microphone bearers.

[Jefferson]

Outstanding report, Marty. That was easily the best and most substantial look we've had into Sabean's strategy this offseason.

No more A.J.? Wow. That frees up a few million right there, doesn't it?

[Josh from Hollywood]

Personally, it pleased me just to hear that Sabean said he screwed up on Nen and Nathan. For some reason that makes it bother me less. But ask me again about Nathan again if he can't trade A.J. and ends up non-tendering him.

[Jake]

Speaking of bald spots, are the Giants the baldest team in baseball or what?

[Nick Schulte]

I'm happy to hear AJ probably won't be back. Marty, I hope you're right about the OF free agent feeling, but from just reading your comment and what Sabean's done the last few years I get the feeling that Ordonez/Drew will not happen. Right now I'm worried that Mohr will be the best non-Barry OF and will be spending most of the time on the bench.

As far as money to spend this is my current calculation:
17 players under contract for a total of $62.7 million (counting Christensen's buyout and 350k each for the 3 non-arbs)
Cruz, Vizquel, Durham, Snow, Alfonzo, Bonds, Grissom, Tucker, Schmidt, Tomko, Williams, Lowry, Rueter, Foppert, Brower, Herges, Eyre

5 players arbitration eligible: Pierzynski, Torrealba, Feliz, Mohr, Franklin

It looks like Pierzynski won't be back and I doubt Franklin will.

That means 20 players for around $65-66 million. Five spots left, one will be a catcher and three will be relievers, and it sounds like there is a decent probablity of resigning Hermanson. Minor leaguers are a possiblity (but I wouldn't bet on it) for back-up catcher (Knoedler)and one of the reliever spots (or Franklin could be back as well.)

Sabean still has a lot of flexibility at this point, both with free agent signing and some trade possibilities.

[gdog]

It was nice of Sabes to own up to a few bads, but I've got a few more for him:

- As of October 2003, he had Todd Linden and a 2004 first round draft pick. So he picked up Jeffrey Hammonds, Michael Tucker and Dustan Mohr and kept Linden in AAA. By signing Tucker, he forfeited the first round pick. All he gained with his signings was predictability. He lost any chance at an upside.

- He might have kept the clubhouse together, but Felipe trashed Yorvit Torrealba a lot in the press. Sabean traded prospects - that could have been used on another player - to pick up Pierzynski, who the Giants didn't even need.

- Pedro Feliz is not a good player. His OBP was 5th-last in the majors this year. And he's 29. Sticking with him is almost as dumb as sticking with Neifi Perez (another bad.)

I have two related concerns about Brian Sabean. First, he seems to have some problems evaluating talent the last 2-3 years. I don't think he knows what he has to do to build a pennant winner, let alone a world series winner.

Second, he has completely mortgaged the future, leaving the team with nothing in 2007. The minor leagues are virtually empty. Other than Jerome Williams and Noah Lowry, the path from the Giants development system to the majors has been rocky.

I think Sabean will move on as soon as Barry retires. The mess will belong to his successor.

[Jefferson]

Look at it this way--right now the only contract commitment the Giants have for 2007 is Omar Vizquel. As it stands, they'll be able to be big players in the free agent market two years hence. I thought that's what everyone wanted.

By all projections, A.J. was supposed to be a much better hitter than Torrealba last year. That was an upgrade that just didn't work out the way everyone thought it would.

What are the Giants going to do with a first-round draft pick, anyway? Pick up more pitching, probably. They're not going to use it on a position player that they'll never bring up to the show. I think a little too much is made of dropping that pick.

Or maybe this cold is just making me cranky.

[crionna]

Great Post, thanks, although I'm disappointed I wasn't invited. Have you owned STs pre-Bell?

Also, I'm a bit surprised at how hard Sabes is on himself re: Nathan. I'm not sure that Joe would have blossomed here. Maybe the change was what he needed. Get him out of a comfort zone so to speak.

I think its pretty fair to say that no one thing has cost the Giants more dearly from playoffs 2002 to now as Nen's injury.

Cheers!

[Marty]

I've been a full-season ticket holder since Pac Bell opened (charter seats) and had pieces of seasons going back to the Van Landingham days.

[BiasedGiantsFanatic]

Hi Marty,

Thanks for the great summary! As the other poster noted, I felt like I was in the room.

Better Royce Clayton than Johnnie LeMaster. :^)

We aren't asking the Giants to defer everyone's salary, we only want to defer Bonds (unless it really is as addictive as heroin).

I don't blame Sabean for going with Herges and not Nathan. Herges was lights out in 2003 playoffs, Nathan was a deer in headlights. Who knew it would be the reverse during the next season? Plus Pierzynski was far and away a much better offensive catcher than Torrealba after his slow start in April, until personal problems caused him to lose focus in the last month (rumor was it had to do with hurricanes in Florida, I guess he has home or family there). In the official MLB calcs used to classify types of free agents, A.J. was rated the top catcher in all of baseball.

Mark my words, all you A.J. haters will be wishing for him if Yorvit plays a full season. Plus, as a lefty, he balances out all the platoon-shift right-handed hitters like Grissom, Durham, and Feliz, though Vizquel helps with that. But I think he's gone too, so we better pick up other offensive weapons to replace him; perhaps that is why the Giants is all of a sudden looking for an impact hitter, as Marty got the vibe plus I've read in the newspapers, they realized after initial discussions that they are not going to sign Pierzynski to a good contract and they better get someone in to make up for Yorvit's offensive challenges.

Now about other's comments.

Nice idea about Atlanta, maybe they take Rueter to even up salaries, plus Merkin back and a package of lower prospects, like Begg or Tauscher, though I could see them wanting Lowry or Hennessey, or even Williams or Foppert.

I think Sabean talks differently because if he is down like that with reporters, that becomes the front page headline "Sabean Admits Mistake!", whereas the most he is afraid of with fans is having it posted on a weblog. We'll see if he changes the first time a newspaper quotes a blog.

Yes, it is nice to see Sabean own up to mistakes. Instead of viewing him as a Nero fiddling while Rome burned down, we see that he is not operating with blinders, that he does reflect on his decisions and try to better himself. That's all we can ask (well, that and a power hitter to hit behind Bonds. My wish for that role won the AL MVP yesterday...)

Upside, upside, upside! Upside your head maybe (kidding! :^). I have researched draft picks and when you are winning like the Giants have, you pick in the mid-to-late 20's all the time. I checked other teams renown for their draft picks and that also picked late - Yankees, A's, Braves - and they were no more successful over the past 7 seasons (when they won; only A's picks after winning seasons were counted) than the Giants, very slim pickings, and the Giants have arguably been better, having picked up Williams and Foppert.

I then checked drafting in the first two rounds and found that there's about a 8% success rate of drafting a good or star player (plays regularly, hits .280+ or ERA < 4.00) when you are drafting in the mid-to-late 20's. 22% success rate if you are looking for a useful player (played well enough to play a lot of games for his draft year) After the 49th pick to the end of the second round (around pick #75 overall), there's only a 2% success rate for good or better, 6% for a useful player. This is from 1986 to 1998.

So you spend $1M on your first draft pick and you have a 1 in 12 chance of getting a good player and 1 in 5 chance of getting a useful player. Or you can sign a free agent and put your odds at better than 1 in 2 chance of getting a useful or better player.

Also, if you've ever watched Sabean draft over a long period, you would know that Sabean typically draft players where the media pundits will either go "who?" or "we didn't see him being drafted so early". So if they tend to draft players ahead of where they are expected or are unknown, then losing the first round draft pick does not really change the players you would eventually draft except that maybe you wouldn't draft the guy you would have at round 50. That first rounder would get picked in the second round and so forth.

I don't think the Giants like Feliz for his OBP, he hit 22 homers and drove in 84 RBIs. Low OBP is tolerable when he is hitting in the bottom half of the order and he has a high slugging pct. Or would you rather have had Neifi backing up 3B and Damon Minor backing up 1B last year?

The minors are not virtually empty. First, drafting late means that odds are that you won't have many players who are that good in the first place. Second, there are a number of very good prospects coming up the minors. Aardsma, Hennessey, Cain and Valdez everyone knows. I think I can take a relatively barren minors when you have such great hits like Williams, Lowry, Foppert, Valdez, Cain, Aardsma, maybe even Hennessey; these picks make up for the lack of other prospects. Linden, Niekro, and Torcato looks like they will be good, useful players when given the chance after 2006. Martinez-Esteve flew up the system last season, he could be up within a year or two at that rate. Lewis flew up almost as fast. Other good prospects include Begg, Tauscher, Misch, Bateman, Garcia, Cervenak. I think the Giants will be stocked with inexpensive prospects by the time 2007 rolls around.

Sabean has problems evaluating talent?!? What Giants team have you been watching the past 2-3 years? Anyone that has problems evaluating talent would be battling the D-backs for the first pick of the draft, not battling it out for the playoffs.

He might have made some poor choices, like trading Nathan for Pierzynski, but that one only looks bad in retrospect, most fans saw that trade as an improvement, though most were expecting it to be the first of many, not the showcase for the season. That's kind of like getting mad when you rolled the dice and it came up craps; you did your best, you made the best bet, it just didn't work out.

Plus have you forgotten the hits of the past two years: Grissom, Williams, Foppert, Lowry, Hennessey, Deivi Cruz, Feliz (why pick on him, he is a good addition), Mohr, Herges (2003), Hermanson, Eyre, Brower. The only ones I can think of right now as a mistake from the get-go was signing Neifi Perez, trading Ortiz, and trading F-Rod, and the latter two were forced by budgetary limits. And they were forced to get whoever they could when they got Franklin because of Eyre's injury.

[Nick Schulte]

Nathan was good in 2003:
1.06 WHIP 9.5K/9IP 2.96 ERA 79 IP

He only pitched to what, 6 hitters?, in the playoffs. Yeah, it was a bad six hitters but it was only six hitters.

[Kyle]

BiasedGiantsFanatic, I think the problem that all of us have with Sabean's "management" of his draft picks is his fetish with intentionally giving them away. So what if late first-rounders don't work out as often. Isn't it still a good idea to try them out. This issue is being misplayed as an "either-or" issue; either have a draft pick or have Omar. In reality, the Giants could have picked up a decent shortstop after the arb deadline and had both.

[gdog]

Let's look at the Giants 1st round draft picks, 1997-2003: Jason Grilli, Tony Torcato, Kurt Ainsworth, Boof Bonser, Brad Hennessey, Matt Cain, Dave Aardsma. Grilli, Ainsworth and Bonser were packaged in trades. At least 2 out of Hennessey, Cain and Aardsma are expected to be good pitchers. Only Torcato hasn't worked out.

While there may be only an 8% chance of drafting a good/star player, you note that the odds of landing an average player are 20%, and the Giants could do with some average players - then we wouldn't have to watch Kirk Rueter pitch this year, or watch Brian Cooper and Wayne Franklin pitch last year.

First-round draft picks are valuable. Teams don't win without them. And the cost-benefit analysis is wrong - let's say $1M signing bonus, then $4-$5 million in salary for the player's first five years in the majors. Assume 3 good years - how many free agents will give you 3 good years for $6 million? None right now...

Feliz - his 22 HRs ranked 77th out of 154 regulars in the majors last year. He has slightly above-average power and no other offensive skills. Plus he's going to be 30, and his skills are going to start declining. There are plenty of guys like Feliz floating around, and no contender would think of giving them a starting job.

The minors - Baseball America ranks the Giants 24th overall. Tony Torcato has 6 HRs and 18 BBs in his last 253 games - that's not major-league talent. Mike Cervenak is 28 years old and he's had a grand total of 44 ABs in AAA. Chris Begg had a 6.97 ERA in AAA last year. 24-year old James Garcia blew away 19 year olds in A ball but got shelled in AAA. Taschner had a 9.28 ERA in AAA. Don't delude yourself - these guys aren't prospects.

Sabean used to get more wins for less salary than other GMs. Now he's in the bottom third of the league. You want mistakes? Neifi and Ortiz, obviously. And $30 million for four years of Edgardo Alfonzo. $20 million for four years of Kirk Rueter. $10 million to Jason Christiansen. Not having enough money to keep Tim Worrell. Giving the Expos $3 million to take Livan Hernandez off their hands. Letting Jose Cruz go to Tampa for $2 million, then spending $3 million to bring in players with poorer production.

Let's face it: Sabean's great acquisitions were all before 2001. The 2004 team wasn't good enough to win the division. $80 million in payroll was enough to do it and Barry Bonds was a starting point that makes anyone look good. Yet Wayne Franklin pitched in the 9th inning of the most important game of the season. No matter how much you like his middle relief corps or his backup infielders, Sabean didn't get the job done as GM.

[BiasedGiantsFanatic]

"First-round draft picks are valuable. Teams don't win without them. And the cost-benefit analysis is wrong - let's say $1M signing bonus, then $4-$5 million in salary for the player's first five years in the majors. Assume 3 good years - how many free agents will give you 3 good years for $6 million? None right now..."

No, you got it wrong. It's like saying "Wow" I won $30 with my $1 lottery ticket, when you spent $100 buying a bunch of losers. Same principle.

Lets go over your example. First, if he is a "good" player, he will make more than $5-6M over his first 5 years in the majors. Feliz will make over that himself and he would not qualify as a good player under the definition I had. If he is a good player, he should make at least $15M over 6 years. A.J. will make at least that much, $1M (or so) first 3 years, $3.5M last year, est. $5M this season, probably same next year. So that totals $16M including signing bonus of $1M.

Now that's your one good draft pick. You forgot about your other 11 duds you picked up. And really, 1st round picks get at least $1.5M if you are talking top 30 picks, so that's another $16.5M.

So now you have spent $33M total for your good player, spread over his 6 MLB seasons for $5.5M per year.

And that's if you actually picked a good player. There is no guarantee that you will ever pick one, just that the odds are 1 in 12 that you will, like the odds of rolling a 4 with a pair of dice. Over a long stretch, you expect to see a good player 1 in 12 times, but maybe you go 0 for 18 then go 2 for 6, for 2 in 24. Do you think your owner will give you even 6 duds as draft director, let alone 18?

If we go to a useful player, which I defined as a player who plays well enough to continue to get a MLB paycheck (typically 6+ seasons) but not a better than .280 hitter (think Tucker), that's a 1 in 5 chance. That translate to $7.5M spent, plus the $5-6M salary for that player, salaries for the others, or about $15M, just for a useful player, or about $2.5M per season for the 6 useful seasons.

Why take the chance that you pick 5 or 12 lemons, sign someone who actually has a MLB track record for the same money and then you try to minimize risks like past injuries and "bad" habits/attitudes.

Now maybe I did the stats wrong, I've only taken the first college class on stats, but that is how I see the situation. Why buy expensive $1.5M lottery tickets when you can get a live body with a track record that you can count on (to a large degree).